ANALISIS SISTEM DINAMIK UNTUK EVALUASI PENCAPAIAN SWASEMBADA BERAS MELALUI PROGRAM UPAYA KHUSUS
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Date
2020-06-15
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Publisher
Sekretariat Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian
Abstract
Special Effort (UPSUS in Indonesian Language) of Rice constitutes a policy issued by the Ministry of Agriculture in order to achieve rice self-sufficiency that has been ongoing since 2015. However, Does this special effort successful and propitious? Dynamic system analysis has been conducted to evaluate the Special Effort of Rice with a system thinking approach. This study aimed to evaluate the Special Effort of rice policy from 2015-2018 using dynamic system. The methodology of this study was developed by making the main Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) system for rice selfsufficiency, sub-systems which support rice self-sufficiency, demand systems, and systems for achieving self-sufficiency in rice themselves, then the dynamic models are validated, simulated and formulated. Based on the simulation results show that the dynamic system can be implemented as an evaluation tool for the special effort of rice programme with the model validation of MAPE <5%. It is therefore, the model can describe the actual conditions. In the next five years, if the increase in plant growth index and productivity targets is achieved, then until 2022 there will be a surplus of 25 million tons of rice; however, it will continue to decline by the end of 2024 if land conversion still continues. In addition, the increase in crop index and productivity still has limited capacity to achieve sustainable self-sufficiency. The simulation results of this model have included the addition of the implementation of mechanisation policies for pre- and postharvest, counselling, revitalisation of rice mills, diversification of food and emphasis on land conversion, subsequently in the next five years a surplus of 35 million tons of rice will occur which has meant that Indonesia exactly is able to self-sufficiency of rice.
Description
Upaya Khusus (UPSUS) Padi merupakan kebijakan Kementerian Pertanian dalam upaya mencapai swasembada beras yang diimplementasikan sejak tahun 2015. Apakah kegiatan ini berhasil dan tepat? Analisis sitem dinamik digunakan sebagai alat evaluasi kegiatan UPSUS Padi dengan pendekatan system thinking. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi kebijakan UPSUS Padi sejak tahun 2015-2018 menggunakan sistem dinamik. Metodologi penelitian dibangun dengan membuat Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) utama sistem swasembada beras, subsistem yang mendukung swasembada beras, sistem permintaan, dan sistem pencapaian target swasembada beras. Model dinamik tersebut divalidasi, disimulasi, dan direformulasi. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan sistem dinamik dapat dijadikan alat evaluasi kebijakan program UPSUS Padi dengan hasil validasi model bernilai MAPE < 5%, sehingga dapat menggambarkan kondisi sesungguhnya. Hasil simulasi model menunjukkan UPSUS Padi sukses meningkatkan produksi. Bilamana dalam lima tahun target peningkatan indeks pertanaman (IP) dan produktivitas tercapai, maka pada tahun 2022 akan terjadi puncak surplus beras sebesar 25 juta ton. Setelah itu produksi padi akan terus menurun jika hingga akhir tahun 2024 konversi lahan sawah tidak dibendung. Penerapan kebijakan UPSUS Padi perlu didukung oleh kebijakan penerapan mekanisasi untuk pra dan pascapanen, penyuluhan, revitalisasi penggilingan, diversifikasi pangan, dan penekanan konversi lahan. Hasil simulasi dengan memasukkan semua variabel tersebut menunjukkan Indonesia dalam lima tahun ke depan akan surplus 35 juta ton beras sehingga swasembada terus berlanjut.