Pengaruh Faktor Alami dan Antropogenik Terhadap Luas Kebakaran Hutan dan Lahan di Kalimantan
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Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian
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Abstrak. Kebakaran hutan dan lahan (karhutla) di Indonesia khususnya di Kalimantan menjadi ancaman bagi pembangunan berkelanjutan karena efeknya secara langsung bagi ekosistem, berkontribusi pada peningkatan emisi karbon dan berdampak pada keanekaragaman hayati. Karhutla dipengaruhi oleh faktor alami dan faktor antropogenik oleh aktivitas manusia. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendapatkan gambaran pengaruh faktor alami dan antropogenik secara terpisah terhadap luas kebakaran hutan dan lahan di Kalimantan. Pengaruh faktor alami dan antropogenik terhadap luas karhutla dianalisis dari data luaran model CMIP5 dengan teknik statistik Random Forests. Penelitian menggunakan data iklim dan data indeks karhutla. Data iklim terdiri dari variabel kelembaban relatif permukaan, suhu udara permukaan, dan curah hujan yang diperoleh dari luaran model MRI-CGCM3 CMIP5. Data indeks karhutla di Kalimantan diperoleh dari data Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Hasil analisis pada periode data tahun 1997 sampai dengan 2005 memperlihatkan karhutla terluas di Kalimantan terjadi pada tahun 1997 dan 2002. Variasi musiman historis luas karhutla di Kalimantan menunjukkan peningkatan pada bulan Juni, mencapai puncaknya pada bulan September dan mulai berkurang pada bulan November. Pada bulan Juni hingga Juli, faktor antropogenik bernilai positif yang berarti mengurangi kejadian kebakaran, sedangkan pada bulan Agustus hingga Oktober faktor antropogenik bernilai negatif, menyebabkan lebih banyak peristiwa karhutla.Abstract. Forest and land fires in Indonesia, especially in Kalimantan, are considered as a threat to sustainable development because of their direct effect on ecosystems, their contribution to increasing carbon emissions, and their impact on biodiversity. Forest and land fires are influenced by two main factors, namely climate conditions, and human activity (anthropogenic) factors. The objective of this research was to analyze the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the area of forest and land fires in Kalimantan. The anthropogenic effects on the area of burn scars can be analyzed by using the output of the CMIP5 model with statistical techniques, Random Forests. The data used are climate data and index data on forest and land fires in Kalimantan. Climate data consist of the variables: surface relative humidity, surface air temperature, and rainfall which were obtained from the output of the MRI-CGCM3 CMIP5 model. Indices of Forest and land fires in Kalimantan were obtained from Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). The results of the analysis showed that extensive forest and land fires during the period of 1997 to 2005 in Kalimantan, occurred in 1997 and 2002. Historically extensive seasonal variations of Forest and land fires in Kalimantan increased in June, reaching the peak in September and decreased in November. Between June and July, anthropogenic factors positively influenced (causing less burned area), while from August to October had a negative effect (causing larger) burned areas.
Keywords
Climate, CMIP5; GFED; Karhutla; Random forests,