APLIKASI METODE TREN WAKTU SATU RAGAM DALAM PERAMALAN TOLERANSI KOMODITAS PANGAN TERHADAP PERUBAHAN IKLIM DI PAPUA
| dc.contributor | id-ID | |
| dc.creator | Garuda, Sitti Raodah; Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Papua | |
| dc.creator | Baliadi, Yuliantoro; Balai Pengkajian Teknologi Pertanian Papua | |
| dc.date | 2018-06-04 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2019-10-09T09:43:29Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2019-10-09T09:43:29Z | |
| dc.description | Climate change has an impact on decreasing agricultural production, especially food crops. The rate of decline in agricultural production due to climate change ranges from 5-20%.The objective of this study was to forecastfood-cropsat Papua Province that are tolerance and adaptable to climate change using trend method. This study used four models of trend analysis, i.e: linear least square pattern, quadratic, exponential, and moving averages, with secondary data base of rice, maize, soybean and sweet potato production; climate data (rainfall); productivity and harvested areas from 1970-2015. These data were used to estimate food crop production in the year of climate change to determine their impact on food-crop production. Results showed that soybean was the most sensitive crop to climate change. It has the biggest impact on production, yield declined on both El Nino (10.7%) and La Nina (11.4%). The lowest impact was on rice crop, which is generally cultivated on the wetlands, El Nino decreased of production of 2.9% and La Nina increased production 2.4%, respectively. Two other crops, maize production decreased 7.4% on the El Nino and 3.9% increased during the La Nina. Futhermore, the the analysis revealed that sweet potatois the most resistant crop to climate change since it production increase by 2.5% during El Nino. As conclusion, moving average trendof order 2 model was most appropriate to estimate the value of rice and soybean production in the 1970-2015 period.The quadratictrend model wasapropriate to estimate maize and sweet potato production based on its the MAPE, MAD, and MSD values. | id-ID |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/IP/article/view/7685 | |
| dc.identifier | 10.21082/ip.v27n1.2018.p35-46 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://124.81.126.59/handle/123456789/7878 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Sekretariat Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian | en-US |
| dc.relation | http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/IP/article/view/7685/8257 | |
| dc.relation | http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/IP/article/downloadSuppFile/7685/359 | |
| dc.rights | Copyright (c) 2019 Informatika Pertanian | en-US |
| dc.rights | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 | en-US |
| dc.source | Informatika Pertanian; Vol 27, No 1 (2018): Juni 2018; 35-46 | en-US |
| dc.source | 2540-9875 | |
| dc.source | 0852-1743 | |
| dc.subject | food crops; climate anomaly; production; projection | id-ID |
| dc.title | APLIKASI METODE TREN WAKTU SATU RAGAM DALAM PERAMALAN TOLERANSI KOMODITAS PANGAN TERHADAP PERUBAHAN IKLIM DI PAPUA | id-ID |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/article | |
| dc.type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | |
| dc.type | Peer-reviewed Article | en-US |