Rohmawati, Fithriya Yulisiasih; Boer, Rizaldi; Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, Fakultas MIPA, Institut Pertanian Bogor; Faqih, Akhmad; Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, Fakultas MIPA, Institut Pertanian Bogor

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dc.contributor		en-US
dc.contributor		id-ID
dc.coverage		en-US
dc.coverage		en-US
dc.coverage		en-US
dc.coverage	Climate; Indonesia;	id-ID
dc.coverage		id-ID
dc.coverage		id-ID
dc.creator	Rohmawati, Fithriya Yulisiasih
dc.creator	Boer, Rizaldi; Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, Fakultas MIPA, Institut Pertanian Bogor
dc.creator	Faqih, Akhmad; Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi, Fakultas MIPA, Institut Pertanian Bogor
dc.date	2014-07-01
dc.description		en-US
dc.description	Abstrak. Informasi terkait awal musim hujan (AMH) memiliki peranan penting dalam penyusunan strategi tanam guna meningkatkan hasil pertanian yang optimum. Penelitian ini bertujuan menyusun model prediksi AMH di Jawa sebagai daerah sentra pangan di Indonesia menggunakan indeks variabilitas iklim seperti El Nino Southern Oscilation (ENSO), El Nino Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) dan Sea Surface Temperature (SST) serta Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Model persamaan AMH disusun menggunakan model regresi linier dan skill model prediksi dievaluasi menggunakan Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ENSO (indeks anomali SST Nino 3.4) menjelaskan sebagian besar variabilitas AMH di Jawa. Oleh karena itu, ENSO bulan Juli dan Agustus digunakan sebagai prediktor AMH. Model persamaan yang disusun berdasarkan indeks tersebut mempunyai skill baik. Rata-rata skill model prediksi mencapai 84% (ENSO bulan Juli) dan 76% (ENSO bulan Agustus) untuk AMH maju dari normal dan 83% (ENSO bulan Juli) dan 86% (ENSO bulan Agustus) untuk AMH mundur dari normal. Dengan hasil tersebut, maka model persamaan dalam penelitian ini cukup dapat memberikan solusi terhadap masalah keakuratan informasi AMH terutama untuk AMH mundur dari normal yang berdampak pada kegagalan panen. Abstract. Monsoon onset information plays an important role in setting up planting strategy for achieving optimum yield. This study aimed to develop forecasting model for the monsoon onset in main rice growing areas of Java, Indonesia using climate variability indices, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), El Nino Modoki, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The forecasting models of the monsoon onset were developed using a linear regression model and that skill of the prediction models were evaluated using Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC). It was found that ENSO (anomaly SST Nino 3.4) explained most of the variability of monsoon onset across Java. Therefore, the SST Nino 3.4 index (in July and August) can be used as one of predictors for predicting the onset. The models developed using this index have a better skill. The average skill of the models for forecasting advanced monsoon onset reached 84% (July’s ENSO) and 76% (August’s ENSO), then for the delayed monsoon onset reached 83% (July’s ENSO) and 86% (August’s ENSO). According to this result, the equation’s model can provide a sufficient solution for the accuracy of monsoon onset information particularly if there is a delay in monsoon onset that can lead to the crop failure.	id-ID
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.identifier	http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/jti/article/view/6247
dc.identifier	10.21082/jti.v38n1.2014.35-42
dc.language	ind
dc.publisher	Balai Besar Penelitian dan Pengembangan Sumberdaya Lahan Pertanian	en-US
dc.relation	http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/jti/article/view/6247/5484
dc.rights	Copyright (c) 2017 Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal)	en-US
dc.source	Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim; Vol 38, No 1 (2014); 35-42	en-US
dc.source	Jurnal Tanah dan Iklim (Indonesian Soil and Climate Journal); Vol 38, No 1 (2014); 35-42	id-ID
dc.source	2722-7723
dc.source	1410-7244
dc.subject		en-US
dc.subject		en-US
dc.subject		en-US
dc.subject	Climate;	id-ID
dc.subject	Awal musim hujan; ENSO; MJO; ROC; Jawa;	id-ID
dc.subject		id-ID
dc.title		en-US
dc.title	Prediksi Awal Musim Hujan Berdasarkan Indeks Variabilitas Iklim di Pulau Jawa	id-ID
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type		en-US
dc.type		en-US
dc.type	Experimental;	id-ID

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