Dampak Penurunan Bantuan Domestik terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Komoditas Pertanian Indonesia : Analisis Simulasi Kebijakan
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2016-09-22
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Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian
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EnglishAgricultural negotiations in the World Trade Organization forum have been in deadlock until the recent Doha Round. Developing countries, represented by among others Indonesia and G-33, have persistently insisted that developed countries should also cut their tariffs and phase out their domestic support and export subsidies, but developed countries have not responded accordingly. This paper is an attempt to investigate several scenarios regarding tariff cut, domestic support and export subsidy reduction in developed and developing countries in order to predict its impacts on producer’s and consumer's welfare and trade performance in both countries' groups. The analysis is done using the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM). The study indicates that, if developed countries only reduce their tariff and domestic support without any reduction in export subsidy, the agriculture production and consumer surplus in developing countries would fall. Import and producer surplus in developing countries would increase. A fairer and healthier international trade liberalization would materialize if developed countries cut their tariffs and reduce their domestic support and export subsidies altogether. This has been proposed by G 20.IndonesianNegosiasi pertanian dalam forum Organisasi Perdagangan Dunia sebelumnya dan sampai memasuki Putaran Doha saat ini masih mengalami kebuntuan. Negara berkembang yang antara lain diwakili Indonesia dan G 33 mendesak agar negara maju juga melakukan pemotongan tarif dan menurunkan bantuan domestik dan subsidi ekspor bagi produk pertanian mereka. Namun, sampai kini negara maju belum ingin memenuhinya. Tulisan ini merupakan kajian terhadap beberapa skenario penurunan tarif, bantuan domestik, dan subsidi ekpor di negara maju maupun berkembang dan menduga dampaknya terhadap kesejahteraan produsen, konsumen, dan kinerja perdagangan pertanian di negara maju maupun berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Kajian ini menggunakan Model Simulasi Kebijakan Perdagangan Pertanian untuk menguji skenario kebijakan yang diusulkan. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa, apabila pemotongan tarif negara maju hanya disertai dengan penurunan bantuan domestik saja akan berdampak pada penurunan produksi dan ekspor pertanian, peningkatan impor, dan merugikan konsumen di negara berkembang. Liberalisasi perdagangan dunia yang adil dan sehat hanya akan tercapai apabila negara maju melakukan pemotongan tarif disertai dengan penurunan bantuan domestik dan subsidi ekspor sekaligus sesuai dengan proposal usulan G 20.