Model Simulasi dan Visualisasi Prediksi Potensi Hasil dan Produksi Kedelai di Jawa Timur
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Date
2016-02-10
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Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Tanaman Pangan
Abstract
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The prediction of national soybean yield and production could be improved its accuracy by integrating a simulation model and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The objective of this research was to integrate a simulation model with a GIS, to predict the potential yield and production of soybean in the soybean production centers of East Java. This study was conducted from December 2013 till May 2014. The approach used in this study was a systems approach using a simulation model as solution to the problem. The model is SUCROS.SIM (Simple Universal Crops Growth Simulator), which was written using Powersim software and Spreadsheet in order to be fully integrated with GIS. The initial phase of the integration process between SUCROS.SIM and GIS are as follows (a) model validation, using input data of soybean plant assimilate partitioning, (b) climatic data (solar radiation, maximum and minimum temperatures) collected from the climatological station (BMKG) Karangploso Malang and (c) observation data of soybean yields of two varieties (Wilis and Argomulyo) at Muneng Experiment Station. It was found that the coefficients of determination of simulation model of soybean yield potential (R2) range from 0.945-0.992 and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) values range from 0.11 to 0.25 t/ha. The average of soybean yield potential and production in 2012 at soybean production centers of East Java were 1.94 t/ha and 293,459 ton, respectively. The conclusion is SUCROS.SIM valid to be integrated with GIS.