Statistical Downscaling to Predict Monthly Rainfall Using Generalized Linear Model with Gamma Distribution

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dc.contributor Departemen Statistika, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian en-US
dc.creator Soleh, Agus M; Departemen Statistika, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Kampus IPB Darmaga Bogor 16680
dc.date 2016-12-26
dc.date.accessioned 2018-05-02T06:42:49Z
dc.date.available 2018-05-02T06:42:49Z
dc.date.issued 2016-12-26
dc.identifier http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/IP/article/view/4750
dc.identifier 10.21082/ip.v24n2.2015.p215-222
dc.identifier.uri http://repository.pertanian.go.id/handle/123456789/1058
dc.description Statistical Downscaling (SDS) models might involve ill-conditioned covariates (large dimension and high correlation/multicollinear). This problem could be solved by a variable selection technique using L1 regularization/LASSO or a dimension reduction approach using principal component analysis (PCA). In this paper, both methods were applied to generalized linear modeling with gamma distribution and compared to predict rainfall models at 11 rain posts in Indramayu. More over, generalized linear model with gamma distribution was used to obtain non-negative rainfall prediction and compared with principal component regression (PCR). Two types of ill-conditioned data with different characteristics (CMIP5 and GPCP version 2.2) were used as covariates in SDS modeling. The results show that three methods (PCR, Gamma-PC, and Gamma-L1) did not demonstrate significant difference in term of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) after addition of dummy variables (month) in the models. However, a generalized linear modeling with gamma distribution could be considered as the best methods since it provided non-negative rainfall predictions. en-US
dc.format application/pdf
dc.language eng
dc.publisher Sekretariat Badan Penelitian dan Pengembangan Pertanian en-US
dc.relation http://ejurnal.litbang.pertanian.go.id/index.php/IP/article/view/4750/4017
dc.rights Copyright (c) 2016 Informatika Pertanian en-US
dc.rights http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0 en-US
dc.source 2540-9875
dc.source 0852-1743
dc.source Informatika Pertanian; Vol 24, No 2 (2015): Desember 2015; 215-222 en-US
dc.title Statistical Downscaling to Predict Monthly Rainfall Using Generalized Linear Model with Gamma Distribution en-US
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
dc.type Peer-reviewed Article en-US


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